Two ways to calculate the same number
Divide total net results by trade count. Alternatively, multiply win probability by average net winner and subtract loss probability times average net loser. Flat trades remain in the total count. Both methods need the same trade definition and cost basis.
Our sample leaves USD 110 after costs across eight trades, giving expectancy of USD 13.75. Four winners average USD 132.50; four losers average USD 105 in absolute terms. The calculation 0.5 × 132.50 − 0.5 × 105 also equals USD 13.75.
Dollars, ticks or R multiples?
Dollar expectancy often rises simply with position size. Ticks or R multiples can help compare different sizes. Define R using documented planned risk before entry and do not revise it after seeing the outcome. Different instruments require their own tick values.
Use complete sequences
Split larger samples only for a defined question, such as setup or session. Show group sizes and check whether a few outliers dominate results. Copied executions across accounts create more account records without creating the same number of independent trading decisions.
Historical expectancy = total net results / number of trades
A reproducible example
| Measure | Before costs | After costs |
|---|---|---|
| Sum of winning trades (USD) | 550.00 | 530.00 |
| Absolute sum of losing trades (USD) | 400.00 | 420.00 |
| Balance: wins minus losses (USD) | 150.00 | 110.00 |
| Profit Factor | 1.375 | 1.262 |
USD 550 in wins − USD 400 in losses = USD 150 balance before costs. After 8 × USD 5 in costs, USD 110 remains. Net profit factor first deducts costs from each trade: 530 / 420 ≈ 1.262.
- Balance before costs
- 150.00 USD
- Total costs
- 40.00 USD
- Balance after costs
- 110.00 USD
- Profit factor after costs
- 1.26
- Expectancy per trade
- 13.75 USD
- Max. drawdown
- 175.00 USD