Preserve the sequence
Record each closed position, including flat results and costs. Define whether a gross break-even that becomes negative after fees counts as a loss. Sorting by profit size destroys the sequence needed to study streaks and drawdown.
What a simple probability means
With an assumed loss probability of 50% and independent trades, the probability that the next five trades all lose is 0.5 to the power of 5, or 3.125%. This is not the probability of encountering a five-loss streak somewhere within 100 trades.
Independence is a modeling assumption. Repeated entries into one idea, copied accounts and shared market events can connect trades. A win rate estimated from a few trades is uncertain as well.
Distinguish fixed money from proportional exposure
Five losses of USD 100 reduce USD 10,000 to USD 9,500. At exactly 1% lost from the remaining balance each time, the mathematical model gives 10,000 × 0.99 to the power of 5 = USD 9,509.90. These assumptions exclude additional costs and do not prescribe position size.
Document deviations
After each loss, check the same items: evidence of a new setup, adherence to the sizing rule, any planned pause and a complete screenshot. Distinguish a planned interruption from a filter invented after the fact. This makes the response to the streak reviewable.